The on-going civil war in Syria doesn’t look like it’s going to end any time soon. Outgunned, the FSA’s guerrilla tactics are proving impossible to defeat whilst the Syrian armies discipline is maintained through terror and brainwashing. The International community is happy to sit on the side lines, after all, Syria isn’t a global oil player, and truth be told, no one really cares. For some reason Western governments are providing the rebels with limited armament and telecoms, being seen to back the eventual winners with token efforts.
For there is little doubt the rebels will eventually succeed, it’s just a question of time. There best chance of victory is to cut the head off the snake; after Al-Assad’s death the regime would probably fall in hours, his lackeys falling over themselves to escape, but, sadly for Syria, he is probably the most heavily guarded man on the planet. And not just guarded by mercenaries, no, he is guarded by his fellow Alawites who represent the ruling elite, approximately 12% of the country. When he dies they too will be ruined and it seems doubtful he will be deserted like Sadam or Gadhafi until all hope is totally lost and the rebels are pounding at his palace door. That day seems very distant right now, but if it does come, I suggest suicide as an infinitely preferable choice to hiding in a hole or drainage pipe. I suppose now al-Assad rather wishes he’d implemented some political reform, I’m sure he could have created a sham democracy like in Russia or Africa and effectively still hold total control, but no, he played hardball and its gone somewhat sour.
I think an important distinction should be made between President Bashar al-Assad and previous Middle Eastern dictators, namely that his army is much more professional, well-disciplined, better equipped and backed by Iran. Plus, the Alawaite generals and officers keep order through fear, after all, there’s nothing like being shot in the back to keep your rifle facing forwards. So it seems the war will continue until al-Assad jumps ship or gets blown apart, and millions of innocent civilians are forced to evacuate as brother’s fights in the street and parents bury their children.
From the news reports and brutal online videos I’ve seen, both sides are committing equally heinous crimes. Extrajudicial killings, gang rapes, wide scale torture and murders are committed by both sides, plus, importantly, as the crisis in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia has shown us, I’m not sure what the people expect when al-Assad is finally removed, but well, I guess it has to be better than this, right?
Iraq turned out ok, kinda….
Israel more than most will be watching as Syria implodes, its network of spies keeping tabs on any arms destined for Hezbollah and on stock piles of chemical weapons should a more anti-Israel leadership ever emerge. When Israel does eventually, possibly this year, strike Iran, the main threat won’t be missiles from Iran, but from the thousands that will be launched from Lebanon.
The war isn’t bad news for everyone though. The media love a good war and come a slow news day the spotlight can be shifted at any given moment, reporters highlighting enough bloodshed and carnage to make Mexico look attractive. Isn’t it deplorable, sponsored by coke.
The sad reality is that there isn’t really anything we can do. It’ll just play out to its tragic conclusion, with Sky news recording all the juicy bits for us to watch on the sofa shaking our heads. I guess half the problem is that both sides seem equally deplorable to many, despite the effort of western governments to paint the FSA as some kind of liberation force simply because they know they will eventually win. It is always a good idea to be friends with the winner though. “Remember, we gave you those fancy radios.” The question is really how many more people will die between now and then, how many families will have to live in refugee camps not knowing if their sons are alive, no one knows, no one really cares.
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